So far, 2026 has been a pretty wild ride, weather-wise. Winter was very cold, featuring extended sub-freezing periods. On the flip side, this summer, air temperatures topped 100°F for Independence Day. But the big story for spring 2026 around the Chesapeake Bay focuses on precipitation rather than temperature: The lack of rainfall and resulting higher salinity.
A visual compilation of data observed by satellites shows that overall, much of the Chesapeake Bay was ever-so-slightly warmer than average March through May. But some spots in the southern part of the Bay were a little cooler than average.
Map of sea surface temperature anomaly for March–May 2026.
Many NOAA Chesapeake Bay Interpretive Buoy System stations were out of the water for much of the spring for repair from damages sustained during the winter icing events. The York Spit location was in for most of the spring. Data from this buoy shows that in general, water temperature increased from March through May and varied a little above and below average.
Water temperature at the York Spit CBIBS buoy, spring 2026.
Precipitation in the region was well below average. In at least two areas, spring rainfall was the lowest recorded since 2007. The lack of rain led to drought conditions continuing in Maryland and Virginia.
Spring precipitation was the lowest since 2007 in parts of Virginia.
Spring precipitation was the lowest since 2007 in parts of Maryland.
Low rainfall means low freshwater flow into the Bay—and that, in turn, means higher salinity. In general, salinity was several PSU above average at the Annapolis, Gooses Reef, Potomac, and York Spit CBIBS buoys. Notably, salinity at the Potomac buoy was 52.8% above the historical average on May 20.
Salinity was several PSU above average at the Potomac CBIBS buoy for much of the spring, including being 52.8% above average on May 20.
Low freshwater flow into the Chesapeake can provide some benefits. For example, low flow off the land can lead to fewer nutrients entering the Bay, and less algae blooms as a result. Because algae blooms consume oxygen, less flow (and therefore less nutrient input) can lead to higher dissolved oxygen levels. Dissolved oxygen measured at Sharps Island (mid Bay) was well above average at depths from the surface to near the bottom.
What Does This Mean for Chesapeake Bay Living Resources?
Striped Bass
The lower freshwater flow and early-warming water temperatures likely encouraged striped bass to spawn earlier than usual. But higher salinity in areas where they usually spawn could have led to a smaller area to use for eggs and larvae.
Menhaden
Menhaden do well in higher-salinity water, so they likely moved further up the Bay than usual. The warmer temperatures likely stimulated early plankton production, providing food for menhaden to eat. The higher salinity may have drawn species that eat menhaden further up the Bay, too.
Blue Crab
Higher salinity typically speeds the growth of blue crabs and encourages them to move further north into the upper Bay. Higher salinity also invites fish that eat juvenile blue crabs, such as red drum, further up the Bay.
Blue Catfish
Invasive blue catfish prefer fresher water. To avoid higher-salinity water in the main part of the Bay, blue catfish may have stayed in the upper tidal reaches and fresher areas of the Bay’s tributaries.
Oysters
Higher-salinity water is good for oyster reproduction and growth rates. If the trend continues, summer 2026 may see high natural reproduction and good oyster growth. However, extended periods of high salinity and warmer water also bring the potential for diseases like Dermo and MSX.
Bottlenose Dolphins
According to researchers at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, dolphin sighting season began early. Dolphins were spotted in the Choptank River and mid Bay in the beginning of April. Usually, dolphins linger in lower Virginia waters until late spring. Scientists speculate that the dolphins moved north ahead of schedule because they were following fish (like menhaden) that pushed further north due to the high salinity and warmer waters.
Angler Observations
With the higher salinity and warmer water temperatures, marine species arrived ahead of schedule. Fishing reports noted that bluefish, large red drum, sheepshead, and striped bass were caught in the mid-to-lower Bay channels and around structures much earlier than in a typical spring.